A food insecurity expert told the UN that the world has about 10 weeks of wheat stored as the invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month.
According to Sara Menker, CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was not the cause of a food security crisis, but “merely added fuel to a fire that was long burning.”
Russia and Ukraine together account for almost a third of the world’s wheat exports. Ukraine is considered the world’s “breadbasket.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently accused Russia of using food as a weapon. Blinken also spoke to the UN Security Council and said that Russia held food “hostage” for millions around the world, not just for Ukrainians.
Blinken said that Russia seems to think that using food as a weapon will accomplish what its invasion hasn’t – to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people.
The droughts across the world are contributing to a decline in wheat resources, Menker said. Climate change and fertilizer shortages are also affecting global food supplies, Menker said.
“Currently, there are only 10 weeks of global consumption sitting in inventories around the globe. This is worse than the conditions in 2007 and 2008”.
According to Menker, official estimates from government agencies around the world show that wheat inventories are at 33% of annual consumption, but Gro Intelligence models suggest that the figure may actually be closer to 20%, a level not seen since 2007 and 2008.
Currently, the world has its lowest grain inventory levels ever, while access to fertilizers is restricted, she said. “Droughts in wheat-growing regions around the world are the worst they’ve been in over 20 years. Corn and other grains are also facing inventory problems”, Menker stated.