AccuWeather, a private forecasting service in the United States, anticipates that this year’s hurricane season will be close to average, with 11 to 15 named storms.
One to three of these named storms may develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or more throughout the season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.
The anticipated switch to an El Nio weather pattern is a contributing cause to this year’s less active hurricane season.
Early in March, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pronounced the conclusion of the La Nia weather phenomenon that had lasted over the previous three hurricane seasons.
According to the forecaster, a pattern of El Nio leads the winds at higher altitudes of the atmosphere to drop more often southward and deep into the tropics, resulting in more instances of vertical wind shear.
Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s Senior Meteorologist and Hurricane Expert, stated that vertical wind shear generates slanted thunderstorms and convective clouds within developing tropical disturbances, hence hindering tropical development.
Kottlowski observed that El Nio-associated hurricane seasons tend to be less active than average.
But, he cautioned, “Even if this season turns out to be less active than average, the abundance of warm water might lead to the creation of a few really powerful storms, as we witnessed with [Hurricane] Ian.”
The intensity of the African easterly jet wind pattern and the warmth of sea surface temperatures in active regions such as the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico will also influence the hurricane season.
