The Unity Labour Party is preparing to hold an early election. Gonsalves’ habit is to serve the entire five-year term before running for re-election. It’s possible that this year will be different.
This is why. Gonsalves is on his way to serving as Prime Minister for the 23rd time in a row. He has next to nothing to lose and far less to prove. The most he wants is additional bragging rights. As a five-term prime minister, he already has history on his side. Aside from his son, he cares little for anyone around him because he has been quite selfish throughout his career.
Furthermore, Gonsalves may fancy his prospects if elections were held sooner rather than later, rather than in 2025. His frenzied radio appearances, visits to construction sites, the launch of the Institute of Governance and Politics of Latin America and the Caribbean under the theme “Creating Tomorrow’s Leaders Today,” the nomination of Benarva Browne and Shakell Bobb, the reactivation of constituency councils and the nomination of candidates, and the attempt to remake the Reparations Committee with a youthful chairman are all intended to set up a contrast campaign: me and my youthful team against the establishment.
It’s an excellent tactic for a party seeking a sixth term. The public relations ploy is unlikely to succeed, but you can’t fault a leader for trying. One thing is certain: Gonsalves will not give up his fight without a struggle. In fact, he appears to be waiting for one.
Gonsalves is banking on name recognition. Vincentians under the age of 35 only know him as the leader. “Big Red” no longer glows, but you can count on him to exploit state machinery and resources, as well as purchase favors with the ULP’s vast war chest.
But will it all be enough? Only the most ardent ULP backer rejects the opposition’s possibilities. As Man Sick stated last carnival, after five carnivals in a row, most ULP fans have little or nothing to show for it.
Unemployment is above 40%, and poverty has returned to where it was before the ULP seized control in 2001. Crime and violence, particularly homicides, are at an all-time high; the police force and public service are in disarray, and corruption eats away at the very fabric of our society. Kingstown has been transformed into a laundry. Because economic conditions are so bad, many working people turn to a side hustle to make ends meet.
The opposition should be having a field day with the country in such a horrible situation. Talk to its major spokespeople, and they are confident that the next elections will be won. Unfortunately for the NDP, that road march song, which has been performed numerous times since 2010, has never won the “People’s Choice” prize. The NDP is the Caribbean’s longest-serving opposition party.
NDP strategists appear to be unaware that in politics, as in life, perception is frequently reality. People can’t believe you’re going to win. They must be convinced that you will triumph. When a voting public believes in your chances of success, it throws caution to the wind and swells your ranks, ensuring your victory.
The recent elections in Grenada demonstrate this idea. The New Democratic Congress (NDC) went from being an opposition party with no parliamentary seats to becoming the ruling party with 9 of the 15 seats.
The NDC chose a new leader. No one is advocating for such a shift here. Many of the old guard who stayed with the party during hard times buried their egos and desire for power. They backed educated, connected new, dynamic, and young candidates who shifted perceptions.
The NDP might undergo a similar metamorphosis, but the old guard must recognize that elections are about addition rather than subtraction. Because the ULP was so badly beaten in the last elections, PM Gonsalves is the party’s lone safe seat. The opposition must recall that, despite winning the majority vote, the ULP secured another seat by one vote.
It might be now or never for Friday. He should rally his troops and declare that, except from himself, Leacock, Cummings, Fitz Bramble, Shevern John, and Israel Bruce, all other constituencies may have fresh and better possibilities. Former candidates from North Leeward, Central Leeward, and South Windward have thankfully thrown on the “political towel.” There are plenty genuine opportunities. In North Leeward, “one vote” Carlos James is quite vulnerable. Some may believe Brewster is impregnable because he won by more than 500 votes, but he is not. A nationwide swing of 5 to 8 percentage points would spell doom for him. Plain Talk has been reliably informed that the ULP has a promising young candidate for South Windward. However, with the ULP seeking a sixth term and a similarly youthful and promising challenger, the constituency won by 227 votes in 2020 should switch political allegiance.
Kay Bacchus and Wyllie should both step away if their party is to have a greater chance of winning. Anyone other than Wyllie should have run in 2020. This time, the old guard must recognize that significant contributions to people and country can be made without standing for office. If they refuse and the party fails to act forcefully, the party’s attraction bulbs are dimmed and its window of success is narrowed.
Nigel Stephenson will easily win, but he should not compete. Despite Mr Stephenson’s lackluster parliamentary record since his election in 2010, the NDP South Leeward election machine takes the seat. The party should run a candidate who will assist with the tough lifting of governance if elected. Offer him an ambassadorial post in London, Toronto, or New York, as Mitchell did to Carlyle Dougan, allowing Arnhim Eustace to emerge. There is no reasonable reason why Lavern King, who is polished and accomplished, should not take over in the Southern Grenadines.
Lavern Gibson-Velox is the last one left. She performed admirably against Camillo. But Dickson did the same against Gustaus, demonstrating that the electorate has formed a strong anti-ULP bias. Can Gibson-Velox defeat Camillo? Yes, absolutely! Will she be able to win the next election? Nobody knows for certain. Camillo’s seat should be lost for tactical and strategic grounds, according to the opposition. He is Prime Minister Gonsalves’ candidate for the next leader. Camillo will be roasted by Akin John in East St George. Furthermore, it will provide poetic justice for a boy whose father, Stalky John, was outmanoeuvred, insulted, and defeated for the ULP leader position by Ralph Gonsalves.
It’s time to break Gonsalves’ curse on our country. Is the NDP up to the challenge? We’ll find out soon enough.
