THE outcome of last Thursday’s historic meeting in St Vincent of the presidents of Guyana and Venezuela and regional leaders was significant, but caution should reside alongside hope.
After months of unnerving bellicosity from Caracas and the December 3 referendum that approved the annexation of Essequibo – which alarmed Guyana – Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro took armed invasion of western Guyana off the table and committed to peaceful pursuit of his country’s claim, under the grandiosely-titled Joint Declaration of Argyle for Dialogue and Peace Between Guyana and Venezuela.
Its importance shouldn’t be understated. Guyanese were deeply worried, moreso in hinterland areas close to Venezuela. The mood was well captured in the reporting of CCN TV6’s Mark Bassant from Guyana’s Northwest District.
Some people living near the border moved out. And when a Guyana Defence Force helicopter with seven crew members disappeared in the remote Pakaraima Mountains of west/central Essequibo; an initial, largely unspoken and ultimately unfounded fear was that Venezuelan forces had shot it down. The mood in Guyana was one of gloom and dread.
That got transmitted beyond Guyana. A war in the Caribbean Basin is no good for tourism; collectively for Caribbean island states, their most important industry.
The meeting at Argyle International Airport was undoubtedly a diplomatic coup for host prime minister and driver of the bus on the initiative, Dr Ralph Gonsalves. People of the region finding regional solutions to regional problems was how one admiring Kenyan friend and Commonwealth Secretariat alumnus put it.
Let’s talk first about symbolism and signalling. One of the enduring images of Argyle was the leather bracelet with a map of Guyana worn by Guyanese President Irfaan Ali on his right wrist – the hand with which he shook President Nicolás Maduro’s.
President Ali also wore a tie pin and lapel pin, both in the shape of the Guyana map. He should have taken Coco Chanel’s advice on wearing jewelry. Before you leave home, remove one item. The tie pin had to go, Mr President. Statement made sufficiently eloquently. Less is more.
President Maduro decided on a cool flex, dressing down for the occasion in contrast to recent meetings with Presidents Xi and Lula of China and Brazil and the state visit to Caracas in July of Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley. Untucked long-sleeve shirt, black jeans and walking shoes that resembled Merrell street footwear. He wore it with elegance, as he does, but he wanted to make a statement. He was El Hombre Grande.
His bigger act of willy waving was touching down at Argyle in a jet on which “El Esequibo” was painted in large letters on the tailfin along with the new map of Venezuela that incorporates Essequibo.
At the Caricom leaders’ press conference following the meeting, the host loomed largest, centrally and most prominently in a huge photo montage, demonstrating what the Vincentian leader thought about his own centrality to events.
On the outcome, give Comrade Ralph his flowers but be clear-eyed about an agreement that has some weak seams. Argyle is suffused with false equivalence that seemed necessary to secure Venezuela’s signature. So it’s about both sides agreeing not to threaten to use force. In paragraph 4, it puts Guyana’s proper availing itself of the mechanisms of the International Court of Justice cheek by jowl with Venezuela’s legally dubious rejection of a court that its very UN membership says it belongs to, and on which it has sat a jurist, Andrés Aguilar-Mawdsley.
The agreement doesn’t require Venezuela to roll back any of its law-breaking decrees, such as appointing a military governor for Essequibo, enabling the issuing of mining licences for the area and ordering Guyana-licensed companies to leave. The last two could drive up investor risk premiums and hurt Guyana by increasing business costs.
Last week I said here that Maduro showed by his post-referendum actions that he prefers an economic war to a military one. At Argyle, he probably gave up something he didn’t want. Napoleon said that an army marches on its stomach. Maduro’s government struggles to put basic food items on supermarket shelves. A war would be expensive. Essequibo, where it borders Venezuela, is dense rainforest, huge rivers and mountains. Paved roads are non-existent.
The political landscape is also inhospitable. The referendum put Essequibo squarely in Venezuela’s crosshairs. Neither Maduro nor Argyle could un-ring that bell.
Media reports had said that the meeting proposal emanated from the Caricom teleconference on December 8, and Maduro received it via phone calls with Gonsalves and Lula. However, the day before that virtual meeting, Venezuelan foreign minister Yvan Gil had visited St Vincent and Dominica – whose prime minister Roosevelt Skerrit is Caricom chair. That suggests that the proposal could have come from Maduro himself or that he signalled openness to it. It may explain the leaders’ weak statement that followed their call. Was Maduro looking for an off-ramp or was he offered one? Did proposal precede process? Important detail.
So, what now? Maduro would likely try to define peace on his terms, by stating that Guyana’s continued petroleum operations are provocative and therefore a threat to peace. He’d likely demand an end to the joint exercises that Guyana has been conducting with the US military – an important deterrent. Guyana would reject these demands. As the election approached, his political opponents would call him weak. He could accuse Guyana of violating the terms of Argyle, and say that it was no longer workable. This ain’t over.
The author is a media consultant. Details at oringordon.com
