- A 2012–2023 crime trend analysis and 2023 crime situation assessment
- crime has generally trended downwards within the past ten years
As can be seen in the table above, crime has generally trended downwards within the past ten years with 2018 and 2022 being exceptions, as there were moderate spikes which in succeeding years reverted to the original trend, being even lesser than years prior. The pandemic of 2020-2022 should also be considered a contributing factor in the continued downward trend.
The percentages show the constant decrease in crime over the period 2012 to 2022 with the positive percentages indicating years in which crime increased when compared to the year prior. The positive figures are shown at years 2017 – 2018, 2021 – 2022 as well as 2022 -2023 as previously indicated, crime moderately increased those years.
The Year that had the most crimes was 2012 with 7540 and the year with the least was 2022 with 3997 reports.
The years that show the same population numbers are those in which an up-to-date figure of the population could not be obtained, hence the previous year’s population numbers were used.
Ending December 31st 2023, the total number of crimes reported was 4143. Here is a table and a bar chart showing the crime situation, broken down by months.
Noted in the table and bar chart above, for the first 7 months (January to July) the monthly crime report average is 367. Then for the months of August to December, a significant decline in the figures can be observed (a decline of 18.8% in August, 15.6% in September, 11.4% in October, 13.1% in November and 15.8% in December) from monthly crime report average of 367 recorded from January to July. This decline has been attributed to the stepped-up police activity across the country, following the mass homicide event of July 21, 2023. As the police activities are being gradually relaxed, we can see a fluctuated trend that has carried on through to the end of December even though the figures have still maintained averages below 367.
Credence is therefore given to the fact that the availability of a heightened police presence in our communities helps in the reduction of crime and provides for a safer St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The disaggregation of homicides reported from 2012 to 2023
Ending the 31st December 2023, the Royal St. Vincent and the Grenadines Police Force recorded 52 murders, (43 done using a firearm). Up to the same date in 2022, there were 42 murders (28 done using a firearm). The year 2022 ended with what at that time was a record breaking 42 murders. The year 2023 ended with 10 more murders than 2022 and thus, breaking the previously set record. Table and graphs depicting how our current homicide situation compares to the last 11 years’ figures are shown below.
Every year from 2012 to 2023, firearms have accounted for the most murder reports. Although it has fluctuated throughout the decade, since 2019 firearm murders have been on an upward trend.
64 percent or 288 murders have been committed using firearm. Approximately 15% of these have yielded positive results
The RSVGPF is currently going through a crisis as the organization struggles to apprehend and prosecute suspects for gun-related murders. This has been going on for the past decade as more and more firearms find their way into the country, coupled with some unscrupulous activities. Below are two graphs outlining the vast differences between the last decade’s gun and knife related murders.
Note that there is an above 85% solve rate (53 of 61) for stab-related homicides while only 15% (44 of 288) of gun-related homicides have been solved from 2012 to 2023. This can be attributed to the fact that there are less witnesses cooperating with the police in firearm related matters. Unlike in a situation where a homicide is committed using a knife or a cutlass, where most of the time there is likely an altercation leading to the incident, more witnesses are present hence, the police better benefits from information leading to the apprehension and prosecution of perpetrators of these categories of offenses,
On an annual basis the RSVGPF on average makes more than 25 firearms arrests which include the seizure of firearms. Given our high firearms homicide rate which has fluctuated over the past decade and now is at an all-time high, it is likely that some seized firearms may have been used to commit murders in the past. This suggests that possible forensic information or evidence may still be obtained from these firearms. Since eye witnesses are basically non-existent in these matters, the RSVGPF need to turn to forensics. Officers should be better trained in the collecting and preservation of exhibits, local laboratories including ballistics and DNA should be established. Crime Scene Investigators should acquire training in the classification of figure prints, tactical units should maintain an unmitigated presence in communities with high prevalence of gun related activities
The graphs below are showing the differences in disposition and trend of murders up to 31st December 2022 and 2023
