The National Hurricane Center is testing a new forecast graphic to replace the familiar “cone of uncertainty.”
Why it matters: The cone of uncertainty graphic, which dates to 2002, shows the probable track of the center of a storm and does not include the extent of its hazards. This risks downplaying a storm’s impact.
The new, experimental graphic is expected to be available around mid-August.
The big picture: The NHC will implement this experimental graphic during the upcoming hurricane season in order to”better convey wind hazard risk inland in addition to coastal wind hazards,” the NWS forecast office in Miami, where NHC is based, said in a post to X Thursday.
Studies show that the 20-year-old cone graphic is often misunderstood.
The cone is probabilistic, meaning that there’s a two-thirds likelihood that you’ll see a direct hit from a landfalling storm if your town is within the cone.
But that doesn’t mean you won’t be affected if you live outside of it.
The width of the cone is set by the error rates from the previous five years of storm forecasts.
