- Forecasters predict more hurricanes in wake of Beryl
Following the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean and sections of the United States, weather experts at the Colorado State University (CSU) have updated their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Senior research scientist at CSU, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, and his team are now predicting 25 named storms, of which 12 would reach hurricane strength and six that would become major hurricanes.
The original prediction was 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
“We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024,” the researchers said in a statement this week.
Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season.
“Beryl became a record-breaking early-season hurricane last week. It took only 42 hours to strengthen from a tropical depression to a major hurricane. Experts at the World Meteorological Organization say there has never been a category 5 Atlantic hurricane this early in the year before, with most major storms forming closer to September. The rapid
development of Beryl is being described by some as a “historic” event.
Although the tropics have remained relatively quiet since Beryl’s rampage, the forecasters are warning that the region should not let its guard down since the hurricane season is nowhere near its peak and conditions are favorable for the development of severe storms.
“Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels,” the forecasters said in their statement.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”
They are also anticipating a cooler neutral La Niña during the peak of the hurricane season, resulting in what they say are reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. A high level of wind shear prevents the development of storms.
With these in mind, the forecasters say the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in the US and Caribbean has increased.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” they warned. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Dominica was spared the bulk of Beryl’s wrath but by the time the hurricane died away, it had made three devastating landfalls leaving in its wake a trail of deadly destruction. At least nine people have been reported killed in the Caribbean, including two in Jamaica, three in Venezuela, three in Grenada, and one person in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Authorities say at least six people were killed in Texas as a result of the storm, while one person died in Louisiana, add ing that the figures could rise.
