The long-running border dispute between Guyana and Venezuela, which is currently before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), flared anew on March 1st. Venezuelan military assets mounted an incursion into oil-rich Guyana’s territorial waters — manoeuvring with the ExxonMobil-operated offshore oil field in their line of sight — prompting Guyana’s President Mohamed Irfaan Ali to denounce this latest Venezuelan provocation.
The Infraction Effect
It has raised the spectre of kinetic operations from (i.e. outright war with) Venezuela, upping the rhetorical temperature to boot. Venezuelan authorities’ barbs aimed at the leadership of Guyana — a country whose population of mostly coast landers falls well short of 1M — have dubbed President Ali the “Caribbean Zelenskyy.”
Washington and Kyiv’s souring relations have, albeit wrongheadedly, become fodder for Venezuela’s show of force directed at its Guyanese territorial claims. Such a Venezuelan narrative is meant to distort perceptions of Guyana’s posture as a sovereign state, which Caracas seems intent on dismembering. In any case, having only achieved independence 59 years ago, Guyana seeks to steer its course on its own terms among the family of nations.
One of two Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member states geographically located in South America, Guyana is one of 14 small, primarily Anglophone postcolonial states comprising this bloc. They have done well in enhancing their global influence, against a backdrop where — with the exception of Haiti, which declared its independence from France in the early 1800s — these nations gained independence from the 1960s to the 1980s.
The inviolability of national borders takes up significant real estate in their foreign policy thinking on the Caribbean region as a Zone of Peace. Indeed, this principle strikes a national interest chord among these states.
Moreover, they are heavily reliant for their survival on two core, interconnected legal and normative precepts of the post-war (and, up until Trump 2.0), U.S.-led liberal international order: sovereignty and territorial integrity. Instructively, these precepts took centre stage during the advent of the United Nations (UN) and they have provided a diplomatic lifeline for smaller states.
The anarchic international system can be an unforgiving place for such states, as evidenced by the border-related situation Guyana faces. Its complex dynamics risk being thrown out of whack by the latest territorial breach, which has made an indelible impression on ever worsening Guyana-Venezuela relations.
In this moment, CARICOM capitals are on tenterhooks. None more so than Georgetown, Guyana’s capital.
As the weaker of the two countries at the centre of this border dispute, Guyana — à la Thucydides’ The Peloponnesian War (namely, its ‘Melian Dialogue’) — has historically exercised a healthy respect for Venezuela.
Yet even as its would-be aggressor wields its hard power cudgel, unsheathing it routinely, Guyana has leveraged multilateralism and international organizations to good effect. As a small state looking to set itself up for success in its long-standing border-related feud with Venezuela, Guyana has embraced a clear legal route to resolving the issue. And it remains resolute in the face of sabre-rattling by Venezuela, which — by some estimates — has the largest proved oil reserves in the world.
Diplomacy and the CARICOM Camp
It helps immensely that the border issue is a standing item in such fora as CARICOM leaders’ summits.
It hasn’t gone unnoticed that regional states have energy-related commercial and other interests they are pursuing with Venezuela, raising profound questions about standing on principle with Guyana in its relations with the latter country.
The Guyanese government is nonetheless using the reality of the March 1st incident to highlight the importance of diplomacy in de-escalating the situation, even as President Ali has admonished Venezuelan authorities for this brazen act. The Guyanese head of state contends that “we will not tolerate threats to our territorial integrity.”
Guyana’s state and security apparatus is on high alert and, according to him, the relevant authorities have “already deployed air assets within our exclusive economic zone and within our exclusive waters. The coast guard is also in the process of being deployed.”
This startling, Caracas-fomented turn of events came just days following another cross-border incident that also rattled Georgetown, which is none too happy that Caracas has seemingly played down the seriousness of that development. From Guyana’s vantage point, in keeping with international law, Venezuela ought to take responsibility.
The Spoiler
As is always true with Guyana-Venezuela relations — which have indeed experienced cordial, trade-driven moments — Caracas has fanned the flames of hostility. Over the last decade, those relations have experienced significantly more lows than they have highs.
Since ExxonMobil announced a significant oil find in offshore Guyana a decade ago, namely, off Essequibo’s coast (the disputed region is Essequibo), there have been heightened tensions between these two countries. (In 2018, Guyana instituted proceedings with the ICJ against Venezuela’s claim to the disputed territory.) This American multinational oil and gas company has established itself as the largest oil producer in Guyana, which has become a “key contributor to global crude oil supply growth.”
Guyana is now primed to develop offshore gas, with ExxonMobil poised to lead the way. The Guyanese state also has a stake in this endeavour, with an eye to meeting its rapidly growing energy demands. This petrostate is eclipsing a long-time Caribbean energy giant — Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector has been in steady decline for some years now, “with [associated] resources moving [instead] towards Guyana and Suriname.” Last year, Trinidadian authorities announced that the country “has about 10 years of gas production left based on less than 12 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas reserves.”
Guyana’s rapid transformation has not gone over well with Venezuelan authorities, who are mindful of the hydrocarbon-related stakes that obtain in that regard.
Two years ago, border-related tensions were seemingly on the verge of coming to a head. The two sides were able to dial back tensions — thanks to The Joint Declaration of Argyle for Dialogue and Peace Between Guyana and Venezuela — which enjoins restraint on the part of both parties.
The power realities are such that Caracas’ step back from its confrontational posture was short-lived, with its latest provocation forming part of a resurgent pattern of military intimidation à la hybrid warfare.
This time around, therefore, President Ali did not hold back, stating emphatically: “But, make no mistake of it: fortified by the strong voices and resolute support of our international partners, Guyana will not allow Maduro and Venezuela to threaten or violate our sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Enter the ‘Gray Zone’: The Interstices of Open Warfare and Peace
Caracas is increasingly coupling the threat of conflict with another key dimension of its hybrid warfare: propaganda. In this regard, Caracas has taken to task Georgetown’s assertion that Guyana’s maritime boundaries, which are recognized under international law, were breached. In effect, it is spouting disinformation about Guyana’s internationally recognized borders and labelling Guyana as the troublemaker.
It is a specious argument, in a context where — having recently taken up a third six-year presidential term under a cloud after reported election fraud and voter repression activities — the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has further relegated that country to renegade state status. Venezuela has lost much of its standing on the domestic front and internationally.
As if to add insult to injury, Caracas is ginning up yet another border-related ploy. At Caracas’ direction, the conduct of elections next month in the disputed Essequibo region for a governor is apparently in the offing. So, too, are elections for a legislative body.
The previously referenced attempt to draw unwarranted parallels between President Ali and President Zelenskyy has also been decidedly about the narrow interests of the Maduro regime, which is pulling out all the stops in its bid to unify a deeply divided country around his rule.
Still, this rhetorical reference falls flat, not least because Caracas has come up with an apples and oranges comparison that wrongheadedly takes a page from President Donald Trump’s foreign policy playbook. Caracas is playing on prevailing geopolitical atmospherics — whose main act is animated by Washington having: (1) turned on Kyiv; (2) turned its back on America’s European allies; and (3) turned qua genuflected to Moscow, ultimately, with the aim of turning out the so-called ‘China threat’.
Taken together, these shifts are constitutive of the wider geopolitical turn in contemporary international relations — one that, a decade ago, began to pivot away from the unipolarity of the erstwhile post-Cold War era to the emergent multipolar order.
Informed by this framing, three additional points further back up my square peg in a round hole contention.
First, while Caracas has decided to up the ante in Guyana-focused hybrid warfare, Guyana is not a theatre of war. This is unlike Ukraine, which is grappling with an over three-year full-scale Russian invasion.
Nor is Guyana the centrepiece of a geopolitical conflict that risks spiralling into World War III. President Zelenskyy is a war time leader, whose country is up against a wall in the face of the Kremlin’s war effort. It is a situation of direct confrontation between the neighbouring countries, and the multiplicity of challenges facing President Zelenskyy’s government is daunting.
In short, the realities on the (Ukrainian) ground are not redolent of Guyana’s predicament, or, for that matter that of its president.
Second, following last week’s now infamous Oval Office dustup, the Trump administration deems President Zelenskyy a spent force. This point was underlined in stark terms by a prominent U.S. Republican lawmaker.
And following on the heels of a high-stakes meeting hosted by London to move the needle on a just and lasting peace in Ukraine, President Trump reportedly halted — with immediate effect — all U.S. military aid to Ukraine. This signifies a dramatic shift in America’s Ukraine-related foreign policy, which could now be about fence-sitting at best, but at worst (reading the signs), it could be about aligning Washington with the Kremlin.
Meanwhile, European Union leaders are set to meet on March 6th, with a view to placing the spotlight on European security and defence. Additional support for Ukraine will loom large at this extraordinary summit, with attention placed on security guarantees for Ukraine.
Whither is President Trump bound? This is the burning question for other Western leaders at this juncture.
President Ali, while he may not hold all the cards (excuse the pun), holds his trump card: Washington is on side. Secretary of State Marco Rubio “affirmed the United States’ steadfast support of Guyana’s territorial integrity in the face of Nicolás Maduro and his cronies’ bellicose actions.”
Washington is not at odds with Georgetown; far from it. The thinking goes, Washington is tipping the scales, but not in the aggressor’s favour. After all, it has a lot to gain in doing so.
As regards America’s support for President Ali in this particular moment, Trump’s State Department voiced its full-throated support for his stance, adding that “further provocation will result in consequences for the Maduro regime;” all while calling out the aggressor. Yet, in diplomatic machinations at the UN, the United States fell well short of doing just that relative to the Russo-Ukraine war.
Curiously, and in a departure from regularly calling Russia out on its war on Ukraine as a non-permanent UN Security Council member, Guyana backed America’s Security Council resolution.
In recent days, the Trump administration also stuck it to Venezuela. Notably, it revoked Chevron’s Venezuela oil license. Trinidad and Tobago is viewing this development with concern. Trinidad and Tobago has a two decade-long natural gas deal with Venezuela in the bag, and it is now compelled to engage the United States on the matter.
Finally, swiftly banking the support of a wide cross-section of well-respected members of the international community also holds the key to President Ali holding his own in this moment. President Zelenskyy has faced a tough time of rallying support outside of the West, among swathes of the developing world.
The unwavering support of international organizations like the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States and the Commonwealth Secretariat can stand between the likes of Venezuela and a country like Guyana. Without the added diplomatic pressure of such third parties regarding its diplomatic engagements with a larger foe, such a country won’t always get much in the way of cooperation. After all, these institutions make representations on behalf of their member states on the international stage.
Veering Off-script
The potential upside of the propagandistic message that has come under scrutiny in this article could be read thusly: As committed internationalists, President Ali and President Zelenskyy would likely make common cause in challenging any notion of an international order in which might makes right. Keeping to this script gives truth the win.
