The Argyle Declaration, made in St. Vincent last December between Venezuela and Guyana, is at risk due to Venezuela’s increasing establishment of military outposts near its border with Guyana and deployment of forces to the jungle frontier.
Both Guyana and Venezuela assert ownership over the extensive mineral-rich region known as the Essequibo, comprising two-thirds of Guyana’s territory.
During the mediation negotiations in December, Maduro made a commitment to refrain from engaging in military actions against his neighbouring country. However, photos disseminated by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington indicate an accumulation of military forces.
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, the deputy director of CSIS’s Americas programme, stated that on the same day as the meeting between Venezuelan foreign minister and Guyanese diplomats, the Venezuelan military is carrying out tank manoeuvres in close proximity to Guyana. Maduro’s actions indicate that he is implementing a deceitful strategy.
Venezuela has asserted its ownership of the resource-abundant Essequibo area, which constitutes two-thirds of Guyana. However, Maduro has intensified the country’s demand for the contested territory in recent months.
In December, following an extensive campaign period, the country conducted a vote in which Maduro claimed that the Venezuelan people supported the use of military force to seize the large expanse of rainforest.
The drone footage reveals that, despite Venezuelan officials engaging in discussions with their Guyanese counterparts to alleviate escalating tensions in the region, the Venezuelan military deployed tanks and patrol boats armed with missiles to the border.
The study by CSIS cautions that Venezuela’s escalatory attitude increases the chances of miscalculation and loss of control over events on the ground.
The case is currently undergoing arbitration in the International Court of Justice in The Hague. However, Maduro is expressing a desire to defy the authority of the UN court and engage in direct negotiations with Guyana.
Analysts saw Maduro’s aggressive behaviour as a strategy to garner support before the next elections. However, some have also proposed that it may be an effort to coerce Guyana into sharing the profits from recent oil findings.
