Researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, likely producing stronger and more frequent storms than a typical year but at the same time with less intensity expected than last season. The annual prediction is closely watched in Florida and other coastal states at risk when hurricane season officially starts June 1.
Experts at Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team estimate that nine hurricanes will occur over the course of the upcoming season, with 17 named storms overall.
Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be major — meaning a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 3 hurricanes are those with sustained winds that reach 111 to 129 miles per hour, enough to cause devastating damage. Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph, and the most catastrophic Category 5 storms reach 157 mph or higher.
Hurricane activity this year is expected to be roughly 125% higher than the 1991-2020 season average, according to the report. One of its authors, Levi Silvers, told CBS News that jump is significant, albeit slightly lower than the 2024 activity prediction, which was 130% higher than the 19-year average.
Warm sea surface temperatures were the primary driver for this year’s above-average hurricane forecast. That was also the case in 2024.
The researchers’ prediction recognizes that “considerable uncertainty” still exists as to the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, cycle. El Niño is the warmer half of the cycle, an alternating pattern of contrasting climate shifts defined by sea surface temperatures and precipitation in a block of the equatorial Pacific that depart from the neutral norm. La Niña, the inverse of El Niño, is the colder phase of ENSO.
Weak La Niña conditions are currently present in that part of the tropical Pacific, but the CSU researchers said they anticipate those will transition to neutral conditions over the next couple of months. The likely absence of El Niño, which often is associated with conditions that disfavor hurricane activity, could mean the coming season is more conducive to hurricanes.