A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined centre.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days if the system stays far enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system.
Tropical Depression may form as the system crosses islands (13.10)
The NHC in an updated statement on a Tropical Disturbance east of the Windward Islands says visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
Although the wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, NHC wrote.
Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.
